Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 1

Fisher Capital Management Eight and a half months after riding the Democratic Party of Japan’s

(DPJ) historic lower house victory into office, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama announced his resignation, having haphazardly frittered away a chest brimming with political capital.

Major newspapers said that Hatoyama was resigning mainly for two reasons: his failure to keep his promise to relocate the functions of US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, Okinawa, out of Okinawa Prefecture, and a political funding scandal that included his mother’s provision of some ¥1.26 billion to him over years.

Following Hatoyama’s resignation, Minister of Finance Naoto Kan was elected as the new Prime Minister, the fifth in four years. At his inaugural press conference Kan proposed a comprehensive reconstruction of the economy, public finance, and social security as his priority, in addition to reforming public administration, and conducting responsible diplomatic and defence policy.

Fisher Capital Management Report- Japan Elects a New Premier Part 1: The biggest question surrounding the once-popular new government is whether Kan can really turn over a new leaf for the DPJ. In his first policy speech to the Diet as prime minister, Kan sought to set his administration apart from the previous one by vowing to build “a strong economy, strong finances and strong social welfare”.

Kan stressed the need to jolt Japan out of its currently weak state, which he attributed to “anaemic economic growth, ballooning public debt and dwindling public trust in the viability of Japan's social security system”.

Observers and practitioners believe that the government is unlikely to announce any significant new policy initiatives, as Kan was already one of the main architects behind the previous administration’s economic policy, although some changes have just been announced in the DPJ election manifesto for the Upper House election. For instance it drops the promise of doubling monthly child allowances to ¥26000 next year.

“I hope to carry over the torch of rebuilding Japan passed on to me by Hatoyama”, he observed at a press conference after his election. Alan Feldman, chief economist at Morgan Stanley in Japan, says that “although Kan’s initial speech did include some new elements, the main message was continuity with Hatoyama’s economic policies. Investors are likely to welcome the innovations, but to remain sceptical of the overall philosophy”.

However, economists believe Kan will face a mountain of challenges both at home and abroad in the near future. First, he needs to rebuild that political capital ahead of the upper house elections. Public support for the DPJ has recovered sharply after his appointment suggesting that voters have, for now, forgiven the ruling Democrats for the previous leaders’ policy mistakes. But it remains to be seen whether the initial popularity of the Kan administration will translate into a strong performance, and whether Kan will ultimately be given a strong enough mandate to push through difficult policy decisions.

Major newspaper polls give Prime Minister approval ratings of between 60 and 70 percent; but such ratings can be very fickle. The election will be an uphill battle for the DPJ. The DPJ is without one of its coalition partners, the Social Democratic Party who left the ruling camp over Hatoyama’s failure to remove the US base from Okinawa, as demanded by its leader, Mizuho Fukushima. The two parties that remain, the DPJ and the People’s New Party, hold 122 of the upper house’s 242 seats, the slimmest majority possible. Should the coalition lose that majority in the coming election, it would mean a split Diet — its majority would only remain in the lower house. And that would make passing bills extremely difficult.

Fisher Capital Management Report- Japan Elects a New Premier Part 1: Kan will have plenty on the economic front too. In terms of fiscal policy, as a former Finance minister he has turned into a fiscal conservative, having been a champion of funnelling revenue from higher taxes toward government spending in order to achieve economic growth. “Economic growth, fiscal reconstruction and social welfare reform will be achieved together”, he told reporters.

Fisher Capital Management Report Part 2 - The UK Emergency Budget

Fisher Capital Management Report  Part 2- The UK has had an emergency budget and it could have been much worse. The heavy lifting is being done by a rise in VAT bringing in £13 billion. On the spending side the cuts are achieved by freezing public sector pay, indexing state benefits to the CPI rather than the faster-rising RPI and freezing child benefits. State pensions will be indexed to the higher of wages or the CPI but the pension age will be raised to 66 fairly soon.

Interest rates are projected to remain low, with inflation absent; and it is possible that Quantitative Easing will need to be resumed but on present prospects this seems unlikely to be necessary. Another concern is with the regulative proposals. There is an antibank mentality developing in this coalition government, which is most unfortunate; much of it seems to emanate from Vince Cable and the Lib Dems.

Yet a moment’s thought should be enough to convince one that we need bank credit expansion and a return to competition on the bank high street in order to foster recovery and enterprise. Ever tougher bank regulation is what was needed before, at the peak of expansion, not now in the slough of recession giving way to recovery. Talk of breaking up banks fails to recognise the natural economics of banks, which favours scale and risk-spreading. Talk of capping mortgage lending at modest percentages of income is also unfortunate when the UK want to see a revival of it’s housing market, now once again back in the doldrums.

A last area of concern is the state of the labour market. The UK do have near ‘full employment’ if one discounts the modest temporary effect of recession. But this only applies to those normally looking for work.

Fisher Capital Management Report Part 2 - The UK Emergency Budget: There is now a large group of people who are claiming benefits of, various sorts in order to stay out of the labour market. Disability benefit is one route; another is the having of children in order to get child benefits and related parenting allowances, with tragic consequences for some children.

Tightening up of this has been signalled in the budget but this has happened before, with no proper follow-through.

Another UK labour market problem is the resurgence of union power as Labour loosened the union laws passed before 1997. One key loosening was the 12-week rule, which allows workers to breach their contracts with impunity when on strike until 12 weeks of strike have occurred. When strikes are designed for short periods for maximum disruption, this 12 week period can take a long time to trigger. During it the employing firm is unable to defend itself by recruiting a different labour force.

Under the pre-1997 legislation firms were able to dismiss workers in breach of contract, provided they did so in a non-discriminatory way. This led to a huge reduction in strikes and a large rise in UK productivity, to the great general benefit.

As we have seen in recent years, certain unions are exploiting this 12-week rule to damage the economy — the classic case has been the BA dispute where UNITE has persisted in attempting to defend well-above market wages for cabin crew.

In sum the budget was a decent start in restoring fiscal sanity. But only a start.

The UK now needs urgent attention to the creation of a proper tax system with low marginal rates but generating a reliable revenue source — the two are perfectly compatible. It needs sense and restraint in regulation. Finally they need to reform their labour market yet again.

Fisher Capital Management South Korea, Brazil’s Economy: 1st Quarter

Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea, Brazil’s Economy - The brief recession of 2009 has given way to a robust increase in consumer demand and recovery in investment in Brazil in 2010. The economy is likely to grow 5.5% this year. GDP grew 2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2009 and fell 0.2% for the whole of 2009 compared with 2008.

Fisher Capital Management South Korea Investing: - The central bank did not raise its target overnight interest rate, the so-called Selic rate, unchanged leaving it at 8.75% a year. This was expected as the presidential election is nearing. The rate fell from 13.75% to 8.75% between December 2008 and July 2009. By the year-end, the rate is expected to rise by 250 basis points to curb inflation.

Even though the US and Brazil are not as open an economy as one would believe. Trade accounts for approximately 14% for both the countries. US cotton subsidies had been a bone of contention for the two countries. The US was accused of excessive cotton subsidies by Brazil. After eight years of litigation at the World Trade Organization Brazil has won the case and Brazil’s move to raise tariffs on a wide range of American goods has a potential of starting a new front in the trade war with the US over cotton subsidies. Overall, the issue is still not blown out of proportion as the two countries are engaged on other fronts.

Fisher Capital Management Korea, Brazil’s Economy: 1st Quarter Investment - Brazil’s government announced a R$958.9bn programme of investments in infrastructure for 2011 to 2014. The program is known as the PAC 2 … the Portuguese acronym for accelerated growth programme, part two … to increase Brazil’s investment rate and its potential for economic growth during the period of the next government, which begins on January 1 2011.

Fisher Capital Management South Korea, Investment News: Henrique Meirelles who provided monetary stability to Brazil is all set to stand for election either as a Vice President or a senator. President Lula may choose him to run for the Vice President office to send a message that macroeconomic stability will be maintained under Ms Rousseff, presidential nominee of Mr. Lula’s party in the October election.

Fisher Capital is a leading global financial institution holding extensive relationships with financial institutions, institutional investors and corporations across the world.

As a full service company Fisher Capital provides a full range of investment banking services including advanced risk management, corporate strategy and structure, plus raising capital through debt and equity markets. With this as our backbone we continue to provide a client service second to none.

Let us keep you informed of all the latest news and developments with our free monthly newsletter of analysis and recommendations.

Join our mailing list to recieved our free monthly Fisher Capital newsletter, with analysis of the latest financial and investment news and developmetns, plus of course our current research findings and recommendations.

Fisher Capital Management: Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Fisher Capital Management Seoul

Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Fisher Capital Management Seoul - Conditions in the government bond markets have remained very difficult over the past month, and there have been further falls in some of the minor markets, especially in the euro-zone, because of continuing fears about sovereign debt defaults. The agreement reached by the member countries of the euro-zone to combine with the

IMF to provide any necessary support to enable Greece to refinance its maturing debts and avoid a default has had a poor response in the markets; but at least Greece has been able to make further bond issues; and the gilt edged market has coped fairly well so far with a disappointing Budget statement that has left any real attempt to resolve the serious UK debt problems until after the general election. But the sudden weakness in the world bond markets after a series of disappointing auctions has once again increased the tensions.

Our position remains unchanged; any existing exposure to bonds should be further reduced in favor of US & Euro equities.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea - The global economic recovery is developing slowly, and so short-term interest rates are likely to remain at low levels for a considerable period. It is also possible that the “fudged” agreement amongst member countries of the euro-zone will provide an opportunity for the introduction of the necessary austerity measures; and that a new government will finally begin to address the debt problems in the UK. But the risks in the situation are still increasing, sovereign debt defaults may still occur, and the single currency system in the euro-zone may not be sustainable in its present form. Higher bond yields therefore appear unavoidable; prospects for all the bond markets are unattractive.

Developments in the bond market over the past month have clearly illustrated the need for caution. The US economy continues to recover. The Fed has left shortterm interest rates unchanged, and has indicated that they will remain “at exceptionally low levels for an extended period”. This tended to enhance the “safe haven” status of the US equity market for most of the past month, as conditions continued to deteriorate in other bond markets.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea - Most of the available evidence supports the view that the economic recovery is continuing, but only at a slow pace. The unemployment rate remains close to 10%, and the housing sector is still depressed, with both new housing starts and sales of existing homes weakened still further by adverse weather conditions. However retail sales are holding up fairly well, and manufacturers are beginning to increase capital expenditures and inventories, and so there is a general expectation that growth in the first quarter will be around a 2% annualized rate.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea - The Fed has confirmed that its buying programmed for mortgage-backed securities has ended, and that it may be moving slowly towards re-selling some of these securities; but it seems to be in no hurry, and so both the economic background, and the position of the central bank, remain broadly supportive.

The situation facing investors in the mainland European bond markets is more serious. The economic background is improving, with the weaker euro providing considerable support in export markets, and so the area continues to move out of recession. But progress is slow, and so the European Central Bank is maintaining very low short-term interest rates, and providing support. However the massive fiscal deficits are threatening to overwhelm the bond markets and to lead to sovereign debt defaults, and so investors have continued to switch from the bonds of the weaker countries into those of the stronger countries, and have widened the yield

spreads across the markets. The latest Greek bond auctions have received only a very moderate response, and there is considerable uncertainty whether even the markets of the stronger countries are adequately discounting the risks in the situation.

Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea - The available evidence on the performance of the euro-zone economy is mixed, but slightly more encouraging. The weakness in domestic demand is continuing, and retail sales volumes are disappointing in most member countries; but the manufacturing sector, especially in Germany, is much more buoyant, with exports providing most of the momentum. The latest Ifo index of business sentiment in Germany is sharply higher, and other countries are also sharing in the improvement.

Analysts are therefore forecasting growth around the 0.5% level in the first quarter

of the year.

Fisher Capital Management: Fisher Capital Management South Korea, Brazil’s Economy: 1st Quarter

Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea, Brazil’s Economy - The brief recession of 2009 has given way to a robust increase in consumer demand and recovery in investment in Brazil in 2010. The economy is likely to grow 5.5%

this year. GDP grew 2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2009 and fell 0.2%

for the whole of 2009 compared with 2008.

Fisher Capital Management South Korea Investing: - The central bank did not raise its target overnight interest rate, the so-called Selic rate, unchanged leaving it at 8.75% a year. This was expected as the presidential

election is nearing. The rate fell from 13.75% to 8.75% between December 2008

and July 2009. By the year-end, the rate is expected to rise by 250 basis points to

curb inflation.

Even though the US and Brazil are not as open an economy as one would believe.

Trade accounts for approximately 14% for both the countries. US cotton subsidies had been a bone of contention for the two countries. The US was accused of excessive cotton subsidies by Brazil. After eight years of litigation at the World Trade Organization Brazil has won the case and Brazil’s move to raise tariffs on

a wide range of American goods has a potential of starting a new front in the trade

war with the US over cotton subsidies. Overall, the issue is still not blown out of

proportion as the two countries are engaged on other fronts.

Fisher Capital Management Korea, Brazil’s Economy: 1st Quarter Investment - Brazil’s government announced a R$958.9bn programme of investments in infrastructure for 2011 to 2014. The program is known as the PAC 2 … the

Portuguese acronym for accelerated growth programme, part two … to increase

Brazil’s investment rate and its potential for economic growth during the period

of the next government, which begins on January 1 2011.

Fisher Capital Management South Korea, Investment News: Henrique Meirelles who provided monetary stability to Brazil is all set to stand for election either as a Vice President or a senator. President Lula may choose him to

run for the Vice President office to send a message that macroeconomic stability

will be maintained under Ms Rousseff, presidential nominee of Mr. Lula’s party in the October election.

Fisher Capital is a leading global financial institution holding extensive relationships with financial institutions, institutional investors and corporations across the world.

As a full service company Fisher Capital provides a full range of investment banking services including advanced risk management, corporate strategy and structure, plus raising capital through debt and equity markets. With this as our backbone we continue to provide a client service second to none.

Let us keep you informed of all the latest news and developments with our free monthly newsletter of analysis and recommendations.

Join our mailing list to recieved our free monthly Fisher Capital newsletter, with analysis of the latest financial and investment news and developmetns, plus of course our current research findings and recommendations.